A bi-weekly newsletter from our Founder & Portfolio Manager, Ryan A. Hughes. Straight talk on markets, taxes, and money. Read by 2,700+ people who value clear thinking.
If California were a country, it would instantly be a global force. It is the largest economy in the U.S. It has the largest military population. It is also a global tech leader in Silicon Valley, and the largest producer of agricultural products in the U.S. As the most productive and one of the most...
Today, I wanted to write about everyone’s favorite subject, the U.S. National Debt, and the method we will likely take to get out from under it: financial repression. Yes, fascinating stuff, I know, but stay with me here. U.S. debt and how much of it is floating in our economy influence just about every aspect...
I realize that talking about the economic impact of the latest political shifts can be taken differently depending on who I’m talking to. I work with clients across the political spectrum—some liberal, some conservative, and many in between. While I do have my own personal views, I understand these are just that: my views. My responsibility here...
A lot has been happening since election day. Tech stocks are up, value stocks are down, and crypto has been on a tear (we’ve had an allocation to Bitcoin for years—yes, we’re bragging a bit). So, basically, your cousin, who considers himself a professional day trader on Robinhood, has been doing well the past month....
When I started Bull Oak in 2014, my goal was to create a wealth management firm I would want to hire. One that’s personalized, data-driven, and methodical in how it helps clients. The problem at the time, and still today, is that most firms fall into a pattern of generalized advice, often overlooking the nuances...
While economic downturns can seem intimidating, they may actually present smart investment opportunities that savvy investors can capitalize on. When the economy falters and markets decline, is it best to pull out of the market or stay the course? It’s understandable to feel hesitant about investing when unemployment rises and markets weaken. It may seem...
As interest rates have risen, so have yields on ‘safer’ investment options, such as bank deposits and ultra-short-term Treasuries (T-bills). An investor can easily pick up a 5% yield with minimal risk. Money market funds are yielding, on average, 1.5%. CDs rates are somewhere between 1.4% and 5.15%, depending upon its maturity. High-yield savings accounts...
Inflation rates have been falling recently, albeit slower than we would like. After record-high CPI readings in 2022, monthly readings have been declining for the past 12 months. We think this trend will continue, especially next month, once June’s figures are made public. If inflation rates fall to 2010 levels, we think this can be...
Are you considering moving out of California? You are not alone. California’s population decreased by 358,662 in 2021 and 113,649 in 2022. Both are unprecedented numbers and the first time in recorded history that California’s population has declined. Why are people deciding to leave? High taxes, cost of living, political friction, and affordable housing are...
Tomorrow (Wednesday, March 22) is a big day for the Federal Reserve. They control the economic wheel and will dictate where we go from here. The decision they must make? Raise interest rates or hold steady. This decision will profoundly impact the global economy as the banking sector is showing signs of weakness. On the...
Economic data can be messy. Like everything else in life, nothing goes according to plan. Life is noisy and economic data is especially so in this environment. COVID policies – lockdowns, stimulus packages, massive borrowing – have never been tried before. It resulted in an astounding economic boom (printing trillions of dollars will do this),...
A recession is undoubtedly going to occur in 2023. Leading indicators, economic indicators that lead the overall economy, are signaling a 98% probability that a recession will start within 3-4 months. This has many people worried about their financial stability. While we cannot control the economy or the markets, there are steps we can take...
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