A bi-weekly newsletter from our Founder & Portfolio Manager, Ryan A. Hughes. Straight talk on markets, taxes, and money. Read by 2,700+ people who value clear thinking.
Twice a year, in January and July, we record a portfolio update that walks through the markets, how we build portfolios, and where we think things are headed. This is the mid-year 2026 edition. The economy: good, not great The U.S. economy is still expanding. Growth ran about 2.1% in the first quarter, and the...
If California were a country, it would instantly be a global force. It is the largest economy in the U.S. It has the largest military population. It is also a global tech leader in Silicon Valley, and the largest producer of agricultural products in the U.S. As the most productive and one of the most...
Stocks are down. Oil is up. Bond yields are up. And most people are just trying to figure out what is actually going on. I thought about a few different approaches for this post. Historical geopolitical conflicts and stock returns. How the new Fed Chairman might navigate this. But I kept coming back to the...
The S&P 500 was up 16% last year, despite the many concerns we had this time last year. If you recall, we entered the year concerned about how the market would respond to Trump’s proposed policies (import tariffs, immigration crackdown, a Bitcoin Reserve, etc.). Some of the concerns we had at the time were warranted,...
There is ample evidence that the economy has weakened and continues to do so. Most recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that job growth between April 2024 and March 2025 was revised down by 911,000 from about 1.79 million to roughly 879,000. 911,000 is a massive revision figure. It’s the largest since 2000....
One of the biggest mistakes I see people make with their money isn’t investing haphazardly. It’s the opposite. They’re too conservative. Convinced the market is overvalued and due for a correction, these people stay on the sidelines, waiting to buy back in. They may have hundreds of thousands (or millions) of dollars sitting in cash...
Today, I wanted to write about everyone’s favorite subject, the U.S. National Debt, and the method we will likely take to get out from under it: financial repression. Yes, fascinating stuff, I know, but stay with me here. U.S. debt and how much of it is floating in our economy influence just about every aspect...
Donald Trump just set the world on fire by starting a global trade war. The U.S. effective tax rate just hit its highest rate since the early 1900s. This is a massive bet by the president, who hopes to protect specific industries in the U.S. and eventually generate enough tax revenue from tariffs to replace the...
Trump announced a sweeping tariff plan today, a date which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” A full breakdown of the list of tariffs from the White House is below. These are some massive moves, ones that definitely change the status quo. China is hit with a reciprocal 34% tariff and the European Union a 20% tariff. The...
One of my favorite stats to share with market-weary clients is that the average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 since 1980 is –14.1%. Think about that. During any given year, you should expect the market to fall on average by 14%. Of course, this average has quite the range: –3% to –49% (!!). The...
The shock and awe campaign from the Trump 2.0 administration over the past two months has left many people, depending on their political leanings, either ecstatic or discouraged. Over the past 47 days, we have witnessed a series of executive orders and policy changes. These include significant shifts in NATO policy, DOGE, immigration crackdowns, the...
Trump 2025 is not the same as Trump 2017. The world quickly discovered that Trump is much more organized this time around. Immigration crackdowns. Withdrawal from WHO. DEI. Tariffs on trading partners. Riviera of the Middle East. The Russia/Ukraine war. DOGE. It’s a lot to take in. And it can be overwhelming. All of these headlines can seemingly have a massive...
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