A bi-weekly newsletter from our Founder & Portfolio Manager, Ryan A. Hughes. Straight talk on markets, taxes, and money. Read by 2,700+ people who value clear thinking.
Twice a year, in January and July, we record a portfolio update that walks through the markets, how we build portfolios, and where we think things are headed. This is the mid-year 2026 edition. The economy: good, not great The U.S. economy is still expanding. Growth ran about 2.1% in the first quarter, and the...
If California were a country, it would instantly be a global force. It is the largest economy in the U.S. It has the largest military population. It is also a global tech leader in Silicon Valley, and the largest producer of agricultural products in the U.S. As the most productive and one of the most...
A few weeks ago, when I first wrote about the Iranian War, I discussed the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its potential impact on oil prices and, by extension, inflation. At the time, the Strait had been closed for only a few days. It has now been closed for three weeks, and there is little...
Every year, the IRS and Social Security Administration adjust key financial planning numbers for inflation. These changes affect how much you can save, how much you’ll owe, and how you should be thinking about your money. Here are the most numbers for 2026. Retirement Account Contribution Limits 401(k), 403(b), and 457 Plans The employee deferral...
Stocks are down. Oil is up. Bond yields are up. And most people are just trying to figure out what is actually going on. I thought about a few different approaches for this post. Historical geopolitical conflicts and stock returns. How the new Fed Chairman might navigate this. But I kept coming back to the...
The past few weeks have been quite pivotal for the markets and the global economy. I will talk about the SaaSapocalypse later (the AI revolution is happening in real-time, folks), but today I wanted to talk about the Fed Chair nomination of Kevin Warsh. I think this has a major impact on interest rates, inflation,...
Today, I wanted to write about everyone’s favorite subject, the U.S. National Debt, and the method we will likely take to get out from under it: financial repression. Yes, fascinating stuff, I know, but stay with me here. U.S. debt and how much of it is floating in our economy influence just about every aspect...
Donald Trump just set the world on fire by starting a global trade war. The U.S. effective tax rate just hit its highest rate since the early 1900s. This is a massive bet by the president, who hopes to protect specific industries in the U.S. and eventually generate enough tax revenue from tariffs to replace the...
Trump announced a sweeping tariff plan today, a date which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” A full breakdown of the list of tariffs from the White House is below. These are some massive moves, ones that definitely change the status quo. China is hit with a reciprocal 34% tariff and the European Union a 20% tariff. The...
One of my favorite stats to share with market-weary clients is that the average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 since 1980 is –14.1%. Think about that. During any given year, you should expect the market to fall on average by 14%. Of course, this average has quite the range: –3% to –49% (!!). The...
The shock and awe campaign from the Trump 2.0 administration over the past two months has left many people, depending on their political leanings, either ecstatic or discouraged. Over the past 47 days, we have witnessed a series of executive orders and policy changes. These include significant shifts in NATO policy, DOGE, immigration crackdowns, the...
Trump 2025 is not the same as Trump 2017. The world quickly discovered that Trump is much more organized this time around. Immigration crackdowns. Withdrawal from WHO. DEI. Tariffs on trading partners. Riviera of the Middle East. The Russia/Ukraine war. DOGE. It’s a lot to take in. And it can be overwhelming. All of these headlines can seemingly have a massive...
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