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Trump 2025 is not the same as Trump 2017. The world quickly discovered that Trump is much more organized this time around.
Immigration crackdowns. Withdrawal from WHO. DEI. Tariffs on trading partners. Riviera of the Middle East. The Russia/Ukraine war. DOGE.
It’s a lot to take in. And it can be overwhelming. All of these headlines can seemingly have a massive impact on the economy and the markets.
If you ignored the actual markets and just paid attention to social media, the news, and your coworkers, you’d think we were in a full-blown 1929-style market crash. People are panicking out there. They are truly worried and scared. This might be you.
But the markets aren’t cratering. Volatility has yet to tick higher. Stocks aren’t in freefall. In fact, the opposite is happening. The markets are at near all-time highs.
And not just here in the U.S., but pretty much everywhere else, too.
If you panic-sold when Trump won the election last November, you missed out on some impressive market gains. And now, you’re probably wondering when and how you will get back in.
Of course, nobody really knows how all of this is going to play out. All of this may cause a market crash. Maybe it won’t. The point is, as always, to stay invested and ignore the noise—and there is a ton of noise out there.
The Situation
The markets are in an interesting spot. The S&P 500 looks expensive by almost every valuation metric, while the rest of the developed world—Europe, Japan, and others—trades at a relative discount.
But cheap valuations don’t mean much when growth is nonexistent. Germany slipped into a mild recession in 2024, while the UK and Japan barely grew. China is still dealing with a demographic crisis and a collapsing commercial property market. In short, the global economy is a mess. By comparison, the U.S. looks downright strong—and in capital allocation, relativity is what really matters.
Add in the fact that the U.S. is becoming more isolationist, and it’s no wonder investors are confused. Keep in mind that we’re also in the middle of an A.I. boom, and the U.S. is leading the charge.
A natural reaction to turmoil like this is to feel compelled to do something. You think to yourself, “The playing field has changed, so I need to adapt to it.” And you tell yourself, “Perhaps I should just sit this one out.” Or, “I am nearing retirement. I can’t afford to lose all that I’ve gained over the years.”
The fallacy with this line of thinking is that the playing field has changed. It hasn’t. It is the same as it always has been.
Think about all that the world has faced in the past 10 years. The COVID-19 pandemic. Russia-Ukraine War. Brexit. 9% Inflation. The banking crisis. China’s economic troubles.
And with all of these worries, the market continued to march higher. Yes, there has been volatility and drawdowns, but that is to be expected. That is what the market does. That is normal. The market tends to climb the wall of worry.
So, let others overreact. Let the media do its thing and understand that people are always going to panic. Just don’t panic yourself. It’s not worth the cost.
Side Note: While 2025 has been a whirlwind for the world (it’s only February, folks), it has also been quite busy for us too here at Bull Oak. We are growing. We onboarded wonderful new clients, hired a fantastically talented Associate Advisor, Trish Chan, and hired an amazing new administrative assistant, Rory Smith. Equally important—though admittedly less exciting—we also fine-tuned our workflows and updated our company handbook.
Yes, this is a bit of a humble brag, but growth happens fast. I spent years intentionally positioning Bull Oak for this, but when it finally takes off, it moves quicker than you expect. In this business, hiring the right people is everything, and I couldn’t be prouder of the team we have today.
In a year filled with uncertainty, having the right team in place makes all the difference. Markets will always be chaotic, but building something strong, steady, and resilient—that’s what truly lasts.
